Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb25…03e5 sports 482 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$208 (+1%) realized +$211 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%281W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$215
14 days+$177
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$474
other 9% −$261
crypto 2% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +17.9% +6.7% 62% 62% +17.8%
≤30d 220 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 54% -6.0%
≤90d 481 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 49% -8.0%
all 481 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 49% -8.0%
10% -18.8% 41% -16.8%
15% -26.7% 32% -24.9%
20% -33.8% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses281 / 200
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)481 / 482
History coverage44d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Over 64¢ 62¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $85 +$90 +105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $70 +$15 +21%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $99 +$70 +70%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $43 −$42 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$42 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $20 +$8 +39%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $16 +$16 +97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots Jun 20 $44 +$17 +40%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$33 +311%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 −$5 -34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $7 +$3 +38%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $24 −$14 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$10 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $22 −$13 -58%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +47%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $76 −$62 -82%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $52 +$24 +46%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $28 +$24 +84%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $19 +$10 +51%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 10 $8 +$9 +109%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $35 +$9 +26%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 09 $31 +$5 +15%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -4%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $19 +$6 +31%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $38 −$12 -33%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $27 +$5 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open (Doubles): Diallo/Hurkacz vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $11 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $74 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $175 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $85 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $85 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 82¢ $70 6h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 6h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 58¢ $99 8h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Fritz 43¢ $43 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $142 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 19h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji SELL Dayeon Back 100¢ $28 19h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 71¢ $20 20h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $16 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 27h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $61 27h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 71¢ $44 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 24¢ $11 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $11 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $16 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $7 47h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 16¢ $3 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 53¢ $10 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 33¢ $10 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.15 · official $70.15 (match) · 885 history records