trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 5¢ | 81¢ | $28,648 | $507,683 | +$479,035 (+1672%) |
| Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1,979 | $2,084 | +$105 (+5%) |
| Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $373 | $380 | +$7 (+2%) |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | $157 | $168 | +$12 (+7%) |
| Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+50%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+43%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-21%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Spread: Magic (-7.5) | Timberwolves | 43¢ | 0¢ | $6,850 | $0 | −$6,850 (-100%) |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $25,618 | $0 | −$25,618 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 25¢ | 0¢ | $156 | $0 | −$156 (-100%) |
| Will the fight end in the Round 2? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $22,059 | $0 | −$22,059 (-100%) |
| Spread: Celtics (-2.5) | Celtics | 42¢ | 0¢ | $2,676 | $0 | −$2,676 (-100%) |
| Spread: 76ers (-1.5) | Heat | 47¢ | 0¢ | $740 | $0 | −$740 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Pacers | Pacers | 25¢ | 0¢ | $27,550 | $0 | −$27,550 (-100%) |
| Spread: Raptors (-12.5) | Jazz | 60¢ | 0¢ | $101,201 | $0 | −$101,201 (-100%) |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies | 23¢ | 0¢ | $80,012 | $0 | −$80,012 (-100%) |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) | Heat | 53¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $3,027 | $0 | −$3,027 (-100%) |
| Spread: 76ers (-3.5) | Raptors | 51¢ | 0¢ | $53,195 | $0 | −$53,195 (-100%) |
| Nets vs. Magic | Nets | 19¢ | 0¢ | $10,964 | $0 | −$10,964 (-100%) |
| Spread: Lakers (-2.5) | Nuggets | 47¢ | 0¢ | $10,726 | $0 | −$10,726 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Magic (-7.5) | Jun 12 | $6,850 | −$6,850 | -100% |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? | Jun 12 | $25,618 | −$25,618 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Mavericks | Jun 12 | $156 | −$156 | -100% |
| Will the fight end in the Round 2? | Jun 12 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $22,059 | −$22,059 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-2.5) | Jun 12 | $2,676 | −$2,676 | -100% |
| Spread: 76ers (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $740 | −$740 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Pacers | Jun 12 | $27,550 | −$27,550 | -100% |
| Spread: Raptors (-12.5) | Jun 12 | $101,201 | −$101,201 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Jun 12 | $80,012 | −$80,012 | -100% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 12 | $3,027 | −$3,027 | -100% |
| Spread: 76ers (-3.5) | Jun 12 | $53,195 | −$53,195 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Magic | Jun 12 | $10,964 | −$10,964 | -100% |
| Spread: Lakers (-2.5) | Jun 12 | $10,726 | −$10,726 | -100% |
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? | Jun 12 | $147,000 | −$147,000 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | Jun 12 | $14,597 | −$14,597 | -100% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) | Jun 12 | $7,196 | −$7,196 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | Jun 12 | $208,000 | −$208,000 | -100% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? | Jun 12 | $43,488 | −$43,488 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | Jun 12 | $137,329 | −$137,329 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Cavaliers | Jun 12 | $11,378 | −$11,378 | -100% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 12 | $113 | +$34 | +30% |
| Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 12 | $3,027 | −$3,027 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Nuggets | Jun 12 | $59,589 | −$59,589 | -100% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5) | Jun 12 | $21,529 | −$21,529 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Hornets | Jun 12 | $74,277 | −$74,277 | -100% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 12 | $421 | +$464 | +110% |
| Spread: Warriors (-7.5) | Jun 12 | $36,579 | −$36,579 | -100% |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-14? | Jun 12 | $692 | −$692 | -100% |
| Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-02-14? | Jun 12 | $222 | −$222 | -100% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) | Jun 12 | $63 | −$63 | -100% |
| Will India win? | Jun 12 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Jun 12 | $115,322 | −$115,322 | -100% |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? | Jun 12 | $6,461 | −$6,461 | -100% |
| Spread: Pistons (-7.5) | Jun 12 | $40,133 | −$40,133 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28? | Jun 12 | $4,758 | −$4,758 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Hornets | Jun 12 | $121,414 | −$121,414 | -100% |
| Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10,526 | −$10,526 | -100% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 12 | $74,518 | −$74,518 | -100% |
| Spread: Bulls (-5.5) | Jun 12 | $2,703 | −$2,703 | -100% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,623 | −$1,653 | -102% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 12 | $2,431 | −$115 | -5% |
| Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $3,452 | −$3,452 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $366,347 | −$366,347 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Jun 12 | $51,899 | −$51,899 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Timberwolves | Jun 12 | $35,521 | −$35,521 | -100% |
| Will Genoa win on 2025-09-15? | Jun 12 | $320 | −$320 | -100% |
| Spread: Warriors (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $6,030 | −$6,030 | -100% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) | Jun 12 | $223,914 | −$223,914 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 483 | -80.5% | -82.4% | 2% | 2% | -99.9% |
| ≤30d | 483 | -80.5% | -82.4% | 2% | 2% | -99.9% |
| ≤90d | 501 | -77.5% | -79.7% | 3% | 3% | -95.9% |
| all | 501 | -77.5% | -79.7% | 3% | 3% | -95.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -79.7% | 3% | -95.9% |
| 10% | -81.6% | 3% | -96.3% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -83.4% | 3% | -96.6% |
| 20% | -85.0% | 3% | -97.0% |