Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb28…b1a2 other 574 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,074 (-3%) realized −$2,091 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%309W / 253L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days−$425
14 days−$919
30 days−$1,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$322
other 43% −$1,185
culture 4% −$84
tech 3% −$73
finance 2% +$39
sports 1% −$111
politics 1% −$40
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -33.1% -39.5% 42% 25% -46.1%
≤30d 105 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 31% -21.8%
≤90d 322 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 34% -15.9%
all 562 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 31% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 19% -21.2%
15% -30.2% 13% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized−$2,091
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses309 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions16
Markets (closed)562 / 574
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$128
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? No 51¢ 86¢ $97 $164 +$67 (+68%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of June 22 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $124 $130 +$5 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 22 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $83 $98 +$15 (+19%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 74¢ 99¢ $67 $90 +$22 (+33%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 75¢ 82¢ $57 $62 +$5 (+9%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? No 74¢ 97¢ $41 $53 +$12 (+30%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 78¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 26¢ 3¢ $83 $11 −$73 (-87%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Yes 57¢ 2¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-96%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $218 −$134 -61%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $164 +$9 +6%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $315 −$266 -84%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $113 −$52 -46%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$51 +127%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $82 −$17 -20%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $156 −$68 -43%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $217 −$190 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$14 +18%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $263 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? Jun 14 $244 +$10 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$9 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $289 −$24 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $195 −$6 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 14 $75 −$7 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $97 +$8 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $82 +$35 +43%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $352 +$46 +13%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 11 $309 +$30 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $301 −$295 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $729 +$26 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 09 $89 −$39 -44%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $440 +$70 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $164 −$161 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$15 +144%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $73 +$33 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 27¢ $15 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 54¢ $127 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 81¢ $84 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 39¢ $8 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 41¢ $8 20h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 37¢ $133 20h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 55¢ $148 22h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 64¢ $13 22h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 77¢ $200 22h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 76¢ $9 25h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6 26h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 51¢ $56 26h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 59¢ $24 26h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 54¢ $47 29h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 47¢ $56 29h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 34h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 42¢ $7 34h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 39¢ $8 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 55¢ $11 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 53¢ $11 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 41¢ $18 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 75¢ $199 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 55¢ $11 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 54¢ $105 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 43¢ $9 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 42¢ $33 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 32¢ $9 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 32¢ $8 35h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 37¢ $280 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.46 · official $760.76 (match) · 3500 history records