Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb29…198e other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-14%) realized −$54 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$75
sports 18% $0
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.5% -26.3% 37% 37% -38.5%
≤30d 19 -18.5% -26.3% 37% 37% -38.5%
≤90d 21 -11.9% -20.3% 38% 38% -35.4%
all 54 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -15.4%
10% -16.7% 41% -23.5%
15% -24.8% 41% -30.8%
20% -32.2% 37% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage115d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $129 $108 −$21 (-16%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 26¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+183%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +320%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 +$10 +203%
Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Mar 16 $2 +$5 +257%
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-13? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $5 +$7 +144%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $10 +$16 +156%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $20 +$31 +156%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $5 −$4 -89%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $5 +$7 +138%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-04? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $12 +$16 +133%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 +$35 +354%
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15? Mar 10 $5 −$3 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 15¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $20 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $22 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 21h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.43 · official $123.43 (match) · 238 history records