Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb2a…e923 sports 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-2%) realized −$394 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%69W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$713
14 days−$568
30 days−$929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$298
other 19% −$180
crypto 3% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 39% -19.2%
≤30d 171 -11.0% -19.5% 39% 36% -17.2%
≤90d 177 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 37% -12.6%
all 177 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -12.6%
10% -26.9% 34% -21.0%
15% -34.0% 33% -28.6%
20% -40.5% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$52 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized−$394
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses69 / 108
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions16
Markets (closed)177 / 196
History coverage55d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $306 $282 −$24 (-8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 98¢ $116 $210 +$94 (+81%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $118 $111 −$6 (-5%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 53¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 52¢ $81 $78 −$3 (-4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 49¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 60¢ $57 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 54¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 46¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-14%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $35 $8 −$26 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $105 −$21 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$12 -24%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$37 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $185 +$104 +56%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 −$30 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 −$14 -28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $110 +$90 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$12 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $55 +$45 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 −$96 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$98 +109%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$8 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 +$52 +109%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $113 +$87 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +95%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$78 +77%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $81 −$65 -80%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $58 −$56 -96%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $42 +$58 +140%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $105 −$103 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$56 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $52 −$33 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$48 +92%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $48 +$26 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $44 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$5 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $110 30m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $6 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 43¢ $84 37m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $60 37m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 18¢ $39 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 71¢ $141 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $103 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $82 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $77 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $45 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $52 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $54 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $11 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $27 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $28 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $1 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $37 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $27 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $29 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $35 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $4 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.53 · official $1,387.25 · 638 history records