Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb2a…e465 crypto 799 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,479 (+13%) realized +$1,557 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%415W / 376L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$999
14 days+$1,404
30 days+$1,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,327
crypto 27% −$153
sports 12% +$120
weather 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -18.0% -25.8% 55% 55% +11.3%
≤30d 153 -36.8% -42.9% 45% 45% +5.6%
≤90d 791 -27.3% -34.2% 52% 41% +2.2%
all 791 -27.3% -34.2% 52% 41% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 41% +2.2%
10% -40.5% 19% -7.6%
15% -46.3% 10% -16.5%
20% -51.5% 7% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized+$1,557
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses415 / 376
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)791 / 799
History coverage78d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $400 $325 −$75 (-19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $386 +$367 +95%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 +$213 +70%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $162 −$160 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $274 +$255 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $704 +$123 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $565 +$213 +38%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 +$46 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$105 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$230 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 36h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dra BUY 12¢ $20 45h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 46h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 46h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $162 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $203 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $162 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $274 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 78¢ $201 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $704 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $565 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.12 · official $614.65 · 1765 history records