Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdb2e…e1f2 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$399 (+23%) realized +$404 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 41L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$558
7 days+$558
14 days+$558
30 days+$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$305
crypto 36% +$275
sports 15% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤30d 54 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤90d 76 +13.9% +3.1% 49% 49% +22.6%
all 81 +15.1% +4.1% 49% 49% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 49% +21.3%
10% -5.9% 44% +9.7%
15% -15.0% 43% -0.9%
20% -23.3% 40% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage121d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 38¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$153 +1436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$78 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$44 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$38 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$40 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge Jun 23 $20 +$17 +83%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $46 +$103 +224%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.35 · official $85.35 · 189 history records