Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb30…0091 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% $0
world 28% −$1
other 28% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 39 -0.5% -9.9% 26% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage328d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $71 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $3 $0 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $30 1m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $21 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $29 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $29 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records