Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb32…4fe9 sports 16 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-23%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$6
other 16% −$2
politics 15% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.6% -40.9% 36% 36% -33.0%
≤30d 14 -34.6% -40.9% 36% 36% -33.0%
≤90d 14 -34.6% -40.9% 36% 36% -33.0%
all 14 -34.6% -40.9% 36% 36% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 36% -33.0%
10% -46.5% 36% -39.4%
15% -51.7% 21% -45.2%
20% -56.4% 21% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump shake every UFC Freedom 250 fight winner's hand? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 18¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +54%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 15h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Will Trump shake every UFC Freedom 250 fight winner's hand? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 36¢ $2 5d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY BOMBA Team 40¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $2 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 18¢ $1 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY paiN Gaming 31¢ $1 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 26¢ $2 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.05 · official $3.05 (match) · 23 history records