Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb36…78b5 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
world 23% −$1
other 18% −$1
sports 14% −$11
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 17 -7.3% -16.1% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 18 -12.5% -20.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -28.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -35.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -41.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage486d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $42 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $40 +$2 +6%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $239 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $238 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $238 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 31 $262 +$1 +0%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $4 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $4 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $41 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $42 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $28 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $15 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $13 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 87¢ $41 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 89¢ $42 58d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 59d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 59d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $159 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $34 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $228 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.