Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdb37…f9bb sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$912 (+33%) realized +$912 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$905
sports 22% +$111
crypto 11% +$222
world 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 62% +27.7%
≤30d 13 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 62% +27.7%
≤90d 13 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 62% +27.7%
all 13 +11.4% +0.8% 62% 62% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 62% +27.7%
10% -8.8% 62% +15.5%
15% -17.6% 54% +4.3%
20% -25.7% 38% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$65 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$912
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $606 +$253 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $302 +$82 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$278 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $499 +$523 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $859 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $606 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 14h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $385 28h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $302 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $784 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,022 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $499 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $65 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $91 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 58¢ $94 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records