Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb38…4538 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 45L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% −$14
politics 19% −$16
other 15% −$14
sports 2% +$134
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 +6.9% -3.3% 26% 16% -7.6%
all 62 +5.5% -4.6% 27% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 13% -9.2%
10% -13.7% 13% -17.9%
15% -22.0% 13% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage632d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $383 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $11 +$13 +124%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $345 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $180 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $349 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $13 +$6 +48%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$9 +104%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $12 +$1 +7%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 01 $24 +$42 +178%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 30 $22 +$32 +144%
Sharks vs. Blue Jackets Mar 30 $28 +$51 +186%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $28 +$24 +84%
Kings vs. Utah Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 26 $21 +$14 +67%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 39h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $41 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $60 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $37 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $95 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $30 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 31d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 31d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $11 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $179 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.23 · official $88.23 (match) · 333 history records