Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb3a…3cf5 politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$9
politics 39% −$8
tech 8% −$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,115) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage88d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 23 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 22 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $1,183 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $920 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,639 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 14 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $800 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $178 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026? Mar 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,172 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 3h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $852 3h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $312 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 3h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 4h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $24 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,262 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,225 21h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $888 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $40 22h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $308 22h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,197 22h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $1,249 37h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 38h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 38h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $1,193 38h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records