Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb3c…8e0b crypto 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$113 (-3%) realized −$111 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%125W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$40
14 days−$86
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$57
crypto 31% −$170
other 14% −$6
sports 3% +$53
finance 3% −$6
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -31.3% -37.8% 33% 24% -15.4%
≤30d 316 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 29% -14.5%
≤90d 316 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 29% -14.5%
all 316 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 29% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 29% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 22% -22.7%
15% -39.4% 15% -30.1%
20% -45.3% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses125 / 191
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)316 / 320
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 76¢ 74¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $33 +$4 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -31%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $39 +$36 +94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -74%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 75¢ $13 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 13h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $2 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $10 15h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $6 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 28h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $4 30h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $4 30h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 38h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 39h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.12 · official $35.12 (match) · 1151 history records