Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb3e…6b3b sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%23W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$6
politics 25% −$4
other 22% −$5
economics 9% −$2
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 210 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses23 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage170d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $28 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 29 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $134 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 28 $34 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $307 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 24 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 24 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $127 −$1 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $34 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $34 8h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $28 11d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $28 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 36d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $39 86d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $39 86d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $39 86d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $39 86d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $34 86d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $34 86d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $32 86d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $13 87d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $19 87d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $30 87d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $30 87d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 87d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $34 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $34 87d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 87d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $36 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $36 88d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $32 88d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $32 88d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $32 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 731 history records