Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb40…94af other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-12%) realized −$233 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$539
sports 10% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.5% -53.4% 0% 0% -44.9%
≤30d 11 -48.5% -53.4% 0% 0% -44.9%
≤90d 11 -48.5% -53.4% 0% 0% -44.9%
all 11 -48.5% -53.4% 0% 0% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.4% 0% -44.9%
10% ← realistic here -57.9% 0% -50.2%
15% -61.9% 0% -55.0%
20% -65.7% 0% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$56 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 19 $79 −$9 -11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $106 −$32 -30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $368 −$230 -62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $53 −$9 -18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$17 -32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $344 −$169 -49%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $455 −$48 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $71 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 5¢ $74 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $47 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $45 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $74 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $77 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $98 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $91 32h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 32h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $210 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 32h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.81 · official $383.83 (match) · 50 history records