Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb40…3612 other 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,825 (-1%) realized −$2,438 · open +$613
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate57%242W / 185L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day101.2pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$36,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4,588
other 21% −$2,386
politics 12% +$907
crypto 9% +$1,535
tech 7% −$797
economics 5% +$57
sports 5% +$235
finance 2% +$52
weather 0% +$5
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -24.2% -31.4% 41% 10% -19.7%
≤30d 423 +21.3% +9.7% 57% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 427 +25.6% +13.6% 57% 18% -8.1%
all 427 +25.6% +13.6% 57% 18% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 18% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 10% -16.9%
15% -7.2% 6% -24.9%
20% -16.3% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$52 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$36,811
Realized−$2,438
Unrealized+$613
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses242 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions169
Markets (closed)427 / 532
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$347
Trades / day101.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 169 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,098 $5,129 +$31 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,696 $2,724 +$28 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $2,348 $2,692 +$344 (+15%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $2,193 $2,162 −$31 (-1%)
Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,154 $2,155 +$1 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,908 $1,957 +$49 (+3%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $1,433 $1,432 −$1 (-0%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $976 $972 −$4 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $808 $948 +$140 (+17%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $947 $946 −$1 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $832 $897 +$64 (+8%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $21B by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $751 $801 +$50 (+7%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $676 $660 −$16 (-2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $538 $541 +$4 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $469 $512 +$43 (+9%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $431 $446 +$15 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $402 $441 +$39 (+10%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $372 $398 +$26 (+7%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? No 72¢ 97¢ $292 $390 +$98 (+34%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $324 $350 +$26 (+8%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 84¢ 68¢ $422 $338 −$84 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 72¢ $399 $336 −$64 (-16%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $301 $319 +$19 (+6%)
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $309 $306 −$3 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $277 $302 +$25 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Jun 27 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 27 $189 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta Jun 27 $44 +$7 +16%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $347 +$146 +42%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 27 $352 +$12 +3%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Jun 27 $368 +$6 +2%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 27 $386 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 7+ times during the New Zealand vs Belg Jun 27 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by June 30? Jun 27 $152 +$21 +14%
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Norway vs France FI Jun 27 $43 −$35 -81%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Norway vs France FIFA Jun 27 $33 −$28 -86%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Norway vs France FIFA Wo Jun 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 27 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 24? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $222 −$222 -100%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Jun 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $56 +$4 +8%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the New Zeal Jun 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the New Zealand vs Be Jun 26 $22 −$6 -27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $465 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 26 $4,352 +$76 +2%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Colombia vs Portugal F Jun 26 $27 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the New Zealand vs B Jun 26 $15 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the Colombia vs Port Jun 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIF Jun 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F Jun 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 26 $92 +$5 +5%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 26 $118 +$32 +27%
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,455 +$40 +3%
World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran? Jun 26 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -97%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $1,668 −$1,254 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 25? Jun 25 $239 +$11 +5%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $248 +$39 +16%
Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 25 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $0 $0 -63%
Over $90M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $0 $0 -7%
Will Graham Platner win more than 90% of votes in the Maine Senate Dem Jun 25 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $783 −$65 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 38m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 25¢ $125 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $100 49m
Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 59m
Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? SELL No 12¢ $12 1h
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? SELL No 14¢ $7 1h
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? SELL No 16¢ $24 1h
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? BUY No 12¢ $58 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $188 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 1h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 2h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL No 72¢ $7 2h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL No 72¢ $5 2h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL No 72¢ $6 3h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana SELL No 30¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,810.91 · official $36,810.89 (match) · 3500 history records