Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb41…5d1b crypto 1063 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$716 (-1%) realized −$716 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate79%844W / 219L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day115.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$238
14 days−$460
30 days−$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$908
sports 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -0.6% -10.0% 83% 38% -9.7%
≤30d 1063 -0.7% -10.2% 79% 37% -10.8%
≤90d 1063 -0.7% -10.2% 79% 37% -10.8%
all 1063 -0.7% -10.2% 79% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 37% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 17% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 8% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses844 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1063 / 1063
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day115.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1063 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records