Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb42…7e5c crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+2%) realized +$102 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%77W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$69
14 days−$25
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$91
sports 31% +$173
other 11% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 56% -2.9%
≤30d 135 -6.1% -15.0% 57% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 135 -6.1% -15.0% 57% 54% -8.1%
all 135 -6.1% -15.0% 57% 54% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 54% -8.1%
10% -23.1% 50% -16.9%
15% -30.6% 36% -25.0%
20% -37.4% 28% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses77 / 58
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)135 / 142
History coverage29d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$29 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 +$19 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +132%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $30 +$24 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$16 -22%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $91 −$14 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$16 -51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $202 +$106 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $15 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $25 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 31¢ $31 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $25 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 37¢ $61 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 57¢ $55 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $71 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 SELL No 52¢ $77 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 60¢ $91 4d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 55¢ $30 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.06 · official $247.06 (match) · 284 history records