Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DB 0xdb45…ecf7 world 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%32W / 39L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1
other 33% +$3
finance 4% +$9
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
sports 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +66.3% +50.5% 33% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +49.6% +35.3% 36% 7% -9.4%
all 71 +18.4% +7.1% 45% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 7% -9.4%
10% -3.1% 4% -18.0%
15% -12.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -21.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses32 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage490d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $190 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $141 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $280 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $153 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $137 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$2 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $151 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $35 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $139 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $288 +$9 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $153 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $107 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $156 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $141 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $54 −$18 -34%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,065 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1,063 +$2 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $2,129 −$2 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $74 +$19 +26%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $1 $0 -26%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $132 29m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $132 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $141 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $141 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $155 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $155 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $60 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $80 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $68 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $141 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $139 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $153 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $153 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $127 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $106 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $91 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $153 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $139 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $97 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records