trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 16 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $14 | $14 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 4? | Jun 02 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 28? | May 26 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 24? | May 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on April 7? | Apr 07 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 1? | Apr 02 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 01 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 25? | Mar 24 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 1? | Mar 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | Feb 22 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? | Feb 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy | Jan 24 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? | Jan 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards | Jan 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Jan 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on January 6? | Jan 15 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? | Jan 15 | $116 | $0 | +0% |