Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb4e…233e crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,187 (+7%) realized +$8,206 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%78W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,175per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$9
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$16
sports 29% +$5,296
other 23% +$2,884
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 71% -7.7%
≤30d 10 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +12.3% +1.6% 62% 62% -8.7%
all 105 +1.7% -8.0% 74% 36% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 36% -3.6%
10% -16.8% 28% -12.8%
15% -24.8% 26% -21.2%
20% -32.2% 17% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,477) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$48 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.26 per $1 lost it wins $7.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$8,206
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses78 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage255d
Avg bet$1,175
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 25¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$42 -42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $6 +$12 +194%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 14 $52 +$48 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 14 $131 +$29 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 06 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $24 +$16 +64%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 25 $10,520 +$206 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Feb 18 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $7 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $2,238 +$192 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $8,333 +$1,987 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 15 $1,521 +$80 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $709 +$98 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $7,388 +$775 +10%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 2 Winner Feb 13 $1,346 +$290 +22%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Feb 12 $6,040 +$1,057 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner Feb 12 $7 +$3 +37%
Valorant: DRX vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 12 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Feb 11 $5,665 +$364 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $101 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $59 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $20 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 71¢ $14 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 1¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $5 87d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 87d
Heat vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $6 88d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 89d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $1 103d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY Astralis 52¢ $52 104d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY FUT Esports 97¢ $31 104d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY FUT Esports 78¢ $100 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 111d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 111d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 38¢ $10 111d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Legacy 28¢ $10 111d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Monte 53¢ $15 111d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Monte 53¢ $3 111d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $24 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 282 history records