Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

DB 0xdb58…6295 sports 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$856 (+25%) realized +$849 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%7W / 7L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$225per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+20.3%	+8.9%	50%	50%	+17.7%
≤30d	14	+20.3%	+8.9%	50%	50%	+17.7%
≤90d	14	+20.3%	+8.9%	50%	50%	+17.7%
all	14	+20.3%	+8.9%	50%	50%	+17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.9%	50%	+17.7%
10%	-1.5%	50%	+6.5%
15%	-11.0%	50%	-3.8%
20%	-19.8%	50%	-13.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$178 vs −$64 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$707

Realized+$849

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses7 / 7

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage5d

Avg bet$225

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	54¢	$700	$707	+$7 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	+$214	+105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,128	+$587	+52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$251	−$138	-55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$102	+$107	+105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$405	+$207	+51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$41	−$33	-82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$115	−$100	-87%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$26	−$11	-44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$31	−$2	-6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$41	+$44	+109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$31	+$46	+152%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$31	+$43	+140%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	Jun 13	$236	−$129	-55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$507	6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,715	35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	18¢	$82	35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	18¢	$32	35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$200	37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$389	38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$739	38h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	92¢	$612	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	SELL Over	8¢	$15	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Over	58¢	$75	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Over	55¢	$41	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5	SELL Over	18¢	$14	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$26	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$405	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	42¢	$29	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$31	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$41	4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$41	5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	41¢	$31	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$31	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5	BUY Over	6¢	$31	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	3¢	$26	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	12¢	$31	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	16¢	$103	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	14¢	$81	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.60 · official $706.60 (match) · 37 history records