Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb5b…62c7 sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%112W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$374
14 days+$374
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$13
crypto 4% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.5% +8.1% 82% 82% +12.0%
≤30d 17 -7.3% -16.2% 59% 59% -3.8%
≤90d 176 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 55% -11.9%
all 197 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 55% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 55% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 50% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 41% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 33% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses112 / 85
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage246d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 73¢ 86¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $30 +$20 +64%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $39 +$32 +82%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $94 +$55 +59%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $131 +$36 +27%
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 24 $80 +$33 +40%
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 24 $81 +$37 +46%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $106 +$55 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $501 +$54 +11%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $64 −$63 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $430 +$136 +32%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $48 −$47 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $180 −$51 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $95 +$85 +90%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) May 07 $42 −$41 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 07 $19 +$24 +126%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $19 −$12 -63%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 07 $20 +$18 +89%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 07 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $21 −$21 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 06 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $25 +$3 +13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 06 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 06 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 06 $109 −$46 -42%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 05 $20 +$22 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 05 $35 +$6 +16%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 05 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 05 $27 +$9 +32%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $24 +$24 +97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen May 04 $29 +$7 +24%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) May 04 $45 +$43 +97%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 04 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 04 $151 −$36 -24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall May 04 $34 −$34 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Envy - Map 2 Winner May 04 $189 +$25 +14%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 04 $127 +$61 +48%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 03 $20 +$27 +134%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 03 $47 −$47 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 03 $45 +$23 +50%
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 03 $20 +$14 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $70 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 76¢ $30 16h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $30 16h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 54¢ $39 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 46¢ $30 26h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 75¢ $63 37h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $166 43h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 78¢ $131 2d
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $113 2d
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) SELL 4ikibamboni 99¢ $118 2d
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $80 2d
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY 4ikibamboni 67¢ $81 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 100¢ $161 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 65¢ $106 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $64 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 90¢ $501 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 100¢ $566 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 75¢ $430 3d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $48 23d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $51 23d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $50 23d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 52¢ $129 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 52¢ $129 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 69¢ $180 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 51¢ $95 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 78¢ $30 50d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 55¢ $20 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.80 · official $70.39 (match) · 359 history records