Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb5c…7fed crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$77
sports 29% +$18
other 9% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 42% -40.4%
≤30d 63 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 41% -23.1%
≤90d 73 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 38% -21.2%
all 75 -24.3% -31.5% 39% 37% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 37% -24.9%
10% -38.1% 31% -32.1%
15% -44.0% 17% -38.6%
20% -49.5% 16% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage90d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records