Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb5f…39c7 sports 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,474 (-7%) realized −$3,474 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%152W / 133L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,020
7 days−$8,182
14 days−$8,402
30 days−$8,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,580
other 9% +$390
crypto 1% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -65.3% -68.6% 20% 20% -63.3%
≤30d 84 -62.4% -65.9% 21% 21% -57.6%
≤90d 127 -41.2% -46.8% 34% 34% -42.6%
all 285 -14.3% -22.4% 53% 49% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 49% -15.7%
10% -29.9% 42% -23.7%
15% -36.6% 33% -31.1%
20% -42.8% 26% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$128 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses152 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage220d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Illinois vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 20 $170 −$51 -30%
Women's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Jun 20 $81 +$51 +62%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 20 $54 +$40 +74%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Oregon vs. Washington Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Jazz Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bengals vs. Ravens Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Texans vs. Colts Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 20 $521 −$400 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Georgia vs. Alabama Jun 20 $161 −$161 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Jun 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 211.5 Jun 20 $215 −$215 -100%
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-5.5) Jun 20 $235 −$235 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-4.5) Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5) Jun 20 $217 −$217 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $373 +$217 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $282 −$282 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jun 20 $354 −$354 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $198 −$198 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 20 $215 −$215 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UCLA Bruins Jun 20 $241 −$241 -100%
Colts vs. Jaguars Jun 20 $214 −$214 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5) Jun 20 $197 −$197 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Women's Group A - Canada vs. USA Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $474 26m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $271 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $219 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $140 6h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY $39 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $71 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $110 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $69 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $73 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $71 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $116 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $116 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $180 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $180 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $212 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 91¢ $350 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over $17 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $7 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $177 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $337 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $338 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $259 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 36¢ $258 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $437 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 562 history records