Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb5f…32e0 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+4%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% $0
sports 37% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -32.2%
≤30d 6 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -32.2%
≤90d 6 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -32.2%
all 41 +0.4% -9.1% 51% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 51% -7.2%
10% -17.8% 46% -16.1%
15% -25.8% 41% -24.2%
20% -33.1% 32% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+206%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $1 $0 +37%
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 28 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $1 $0 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $1 $0 +47%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets Dec 24 $1 $0 +47%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 24 $1 +$2 +150%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 $0 +24%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2025-12-14? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 48¢ $0 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 39¢ $0 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 122d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 122d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 170d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 170d
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 170d
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 170d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 170d
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 170d
Pistons vs. Jazz BUY Pistons 75¢ $1 173d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 74¢ $1 173d
Celtics vs. Pacers BUY Celtics 77¢ $1 173d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 63¢ $1 173d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $1 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.01 · official $5.01 (match) · 72 history records