Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb63…8d15 crypto 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 219d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,126 (-2%) realized −$1,126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%123W / 168L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 220d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$6,419
sports 8% +$49
other 1% −$43
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -45.5% -50.6% 31% 31% -22.4%
≤30d 23 -57.5% -61.6% 26% 26% -32.9%
≤90d 104 -5.1% -14.2% 29% 28% -32.3%
all 291 -4.6% -13.7% 42% 38% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 38% -21.4%
10% -21.9% 34% -29.0%
15% -29.5% 31% -35.8%
20% -36.4% 24% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$135 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses123 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 293
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$169
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $71 +$33 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $251 −$248 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $776 +$722 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $348 +$251 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$18 -82%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $456 −$450 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 −$86 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $175 −$174 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $293 −$288 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $415 +$328 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $219 −$213 -97%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$94 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +22%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 25 $28 −$26 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? May 18 $4 +$16 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $44 −$38 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 16 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $12 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $214 +$143 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 14 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $214 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $153 +$81 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $480 +$120 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $158 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $456 +$69 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $38 +$49 +129%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 12 $63 −$19 -30%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET May 12 $104 −$103 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $29 −$29 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 53¢ $105 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $251 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $71 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,498 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $776 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $138 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $125 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $36 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $28 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 A BUY 13¢ $513 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 30¢ $306 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 37¢ $4 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 37¢ $55 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 37¢ $57 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 37¢ $7 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 37¢ $287 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 44¢ $45 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $89 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records