Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb64…3a96 crypto 459 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate69%319W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$38
14 days+$44
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$128
other 5% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 50% +13.5%
≤30d 21 +3.1% -6.7% 71% 52% +10.2%
≤90d 459 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 36% -12.9%
all 459 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 20% -21.2%
15% -28.6% 10% -28.8%
20% -35.6% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses319 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)459 / 459
History coverage63d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 459 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$26 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$12 +96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 20 $8 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 13 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 13 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $135 −$133 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 13 $1 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 13 $8 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $21 −$18 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $41 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $18 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1421 history records