Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb67…4fd6 world 40 markets active 5h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 27% $0
culture 7% −$12
politics 5% $0
tech 5% −$4
sports 3% +$22
weather 2% −$4
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 40 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 88% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage481d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $41 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $60 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $18 $0 +1%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 15 $43 $0 +1%
Illinois vs. Michigan Mar 03 $7 +$11 +144%
Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film a Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will "The Journey" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $8 −$1 -9%
Texas Southern vs. Alcorn State Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will "Mi Camino" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $19 −$11 -58%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on March 2? Mar 02 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $23 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Wizards Mar 02 $10 +$12 +117%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 02 $47 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $28 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $28 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 119 history records