Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb6c…0817 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 32% +10.5%
≤30d 25 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 32% +10.5%
≤90d 25 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 32% +10.5%
all 25 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 32% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 32% +10.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 32% -0.0%
15% -38.4% 28% -9.7%
20% -44.4% 28% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$13 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 83¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? No 19¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$103 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $11 +$7 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 25 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $11 +$7 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$36 +227%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$43 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? SELL No 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? SELL No 5¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL No 5¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 17¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL No 4¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.27 · official $186.27 (match) · 77 history records