Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb6d…7a04 weather 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$187 (-4%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$100
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$60
weather 29% −$92
world 26% −$46
sports 2% −$20
politics 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 26% -14.3%
≤30d 42 -1.6% -10.9% 62% 12% -13.6%
≤90d 42 -1.6% -10.9% 62% 12% -13.6%
all 42 -1.6% -10.9% 62% 12% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 12% -13.6%
10% -19.5% 7% -21.9%
15% -27.2% 5% -29.4%
20% -34.4% 5% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage29d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$22 +733%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$3 +14%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $166 −$17 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $95 −$89 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $74 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $81 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $61 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,282 −$46 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,935 −$71 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $44 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 23h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 49¢ $4 25h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 87¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $48 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $8 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 22¢ $1 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $66 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 80¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.56 · official $40.77 (match) · 96 history records