Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb70…52c0 sports 528 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,163 (-10%) realized −$2,072 · open −$91
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%293W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$2,042
14 days−$2,099
30 days−$2,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,240
other 9% +$71
crypto 2% −$308
world 0% −$13
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -2.3% -11.6% 59% 54% -25.0%
≤30d 334 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 55% -19.8%
≤90d 512 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 56% -19.8%
all 512 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 56% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 56% -19.8%
10% -16.9% 55% -27.5%
15% -24.9% 52% -34.5%
20% -32.3% 40% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$39 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,054
Realized−$2,072
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses293 / 219
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions16
Markets (closed)512 / 528
History coverage43d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 61¢ 28¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 54¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 51¢ 42¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Petr Brunclik 70¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $342 +$24 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$10 -29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$41 +82%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $347 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $35 +$27 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $191 +$49 +26%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $237 +$7 +3%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $136 +$62 +46%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $35 +$23 +65%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $186 +$14 +8%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $45 +$18 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $202 +$86 +43%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $51 +$29 +58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $225 +$189 +84%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$57 +56%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $41 +$28 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $35 −$23 -66%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $41 +$34 +83%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $56 +$28 +50%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $66 +$24 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska SELL Florian Broska 100¢ $135 0m
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 74¢ $101 9m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 51¢ $36 41m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 61¢ $101 52m
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 70¢ $50 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $25 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $51 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $35 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $92 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $241 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 86¢ $151 8h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 99¢ $367 8h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 81¢ $302 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 99¢ $349 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 85¢ $301 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 55¢ $10 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 63¢ $35 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $35 10h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 59¢ $40 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,054.19 · official $1,073.08 · 1168 history records