Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb71…82c7 crypto 120 markets active 1d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%59W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$12
other 27% −$17
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.7% -16.5% 69% 51% -7.2%
≤30d 112 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 47% -12.2%
≤90d 112 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 47% -12.2%
all 112 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 47% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -12.2%
10% -24.8% 37% -20.6%
15% -32.0% 29% -28.3%
20% -38.7% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses59 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)112 / 120
History coverage28d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $226 $221 −$5 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -47%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $4 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 26 $8 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $12 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.56 · official $244.57 (match) · 373 history records