Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb71…10cd sports 781 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,465 (+1%) realized +$1,467 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%224W / 705L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$754est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$388
other 19% +$3,990
world 3% −$85
culture 2% −$1,567
politics 1% −$394
crypto 1% −$210
tech 0% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -80.5% -82.4% 7% 6% -81.0%
≤30d 301 -57.4% -61.4% 15% 14% -55.6%
≤90d 565 -35.8% -42.0% 21% 19% -36.8%
all 929 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 23% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 23% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 22% -29.4%
15% -43.1% 21% -36.2%
20% -48.6% 20% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$122 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,467
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses224 / 705
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$754
Open positions1
Markets (closed)929 / 781
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$160
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the fight end in the Round 2? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-12.5) Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $329 −$329 -100%
Virginia vs. Missouri Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Jun 15 $44 −$84 -190%
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $153 −$159 -104%
Warriors vs. Lakers Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jun 15 $398 −$398 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Croden vs. Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Emmers vs. Amil Jun 15 $137 −$144 -105%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $681 −$681 -100%
Will the fight end in Round 4? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brandon Royval win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Colts vs. Seahawks Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Umamusume: Pretty Derby win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awa Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
UFC 322: Cortez vs. Blanchfield (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Frevola vs. Nelson Jun 15 $2 −$37 -1676%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" or "Investment" 5+ times during the private di Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Clippers Jun 15 $426 −$426 -100%
Will Wuthering Waves win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jun 15 $76 −$84 -109%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 8 be greater than Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Hokit vs. Gimenis Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Giants vs. Lions Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $472 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $97 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $399 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $262 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $52 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $13 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $3 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $0 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $53 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $4 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $14 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $92 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 37¢ $61 5h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $68 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $0 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $270 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $49 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 46¢ $45 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $110 22h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 3500 history records