Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb71…4a20 crypto 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$503 (-4%) realized −$503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%790W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$478
14 days−$478
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$503
sports 19% +$3
other 18% −$4
weather 4% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.3% -13.4% 93% 0% -21.1%
≤30d 46 -4.3% -13.4% 93% 0% -21.1%
≤90d 464 -3.6% -12.7% 96% 0% -15.4%
all 810 -2.1% -11.5% 98% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -13.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -21.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -29.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses790 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)810 / 818
History coverage209d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bandecchi vs. Kuzmova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kuzmova (-1.5) vs Bandecchi (+1.5) Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Susan Bandecchi vs. Katarina Kuzmova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Cerundolo Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Jover (-1.5) vs Demanet (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zamarripa (-1.5) vs Vandromme (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Vandromme (-1.5) vs Zamarripa (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Men Tulsa: Completed Match: Zsombor Velcz vs Maximus Dussault Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Bekeni vs Daskalovic Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 16 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $351 −$344 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $152 −$144 -94%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Set Handicap: Kuzmova (-1.5) vs Bandecchi (+1.5) BUY Bandecchi 100¢ $33 9h
Bandecchi vs. Kuzmova: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $33 9h
Susan Bandecchi vs. Katarina Kuzmova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $33 9h
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Cerundolo BUY Cerundolo 100¢ $50 10h
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova BUY Sabalenka 99¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Set Handicap: Jover (-1.5) vs Demanet (+1.5) BUY Demanet 100¢ $50 12h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 100¢ $50 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $36 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $14 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $50 15h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $50 21h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $50 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.99 · official $448.99 (match) · 1764 history records