Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb72…9ed4 sports 345 markets active 10h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$284 (+1%) realized +$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%335W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$58
14 days+$136
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$233
other 10% +$81
world 0% −$35
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 45 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 2% -8.0%
≤90d 150 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 1% -8.3%
all 345 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses335 / 10
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage282d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $495 +$5 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $485 +$10 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $476 +$9 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $535 +$5 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $527 +$8 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $521 +$6 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $515 +$6 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $253 +$9 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $497 +$10 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $477 +$20 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $471 +$6 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $461 +$10 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 +$7 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $222 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $222 +$7 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $211 +$4 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $203 +$4 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $205 +$6 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $199 +$4 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $201 +$4 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $197 +$2 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $197 +$4 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $191 +$6 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $193 +$4 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $187 +$4 +2%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $192 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $188 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $191 +$1 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $186 +$2 +1%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $188 +$3 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $184 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $184 +$4 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $179 +$4 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $182 +$2 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $178 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 03 $178 +$4 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $177 +$1 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $175 +$3 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $175 +$2 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $208 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $205 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $206 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $203 +$2 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $204 +$2 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 28 $201 +$2 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $202 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $199 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $280 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $5 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $122 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $4 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $86 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $485 35h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 98¢ $476 37h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $7 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $192 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $337 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $527 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $521 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $54 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $461 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $262 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $253 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY 77¢ $1 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $497 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $477 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $471 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $170 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $292 10d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $230 10d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $224 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $222 11d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $222 11d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $211 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 98¢ $203 13d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $205 13d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $199 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 827 history records