Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb72…0224 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 23% −$1
crypto 9% $0
politics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -9.8%
all 52 -2.3% -11.6% 42% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage469d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $18 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 24 $12 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presid Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $2 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $1 $0 -11%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $16 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $7 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $19 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $6 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $31 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $31 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $31 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $15 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.50 · official $31.50 (match) · 184 history records