Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb72…2d66 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$126 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days+$145
14 days+$222
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$168
other 23% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.5% -1.0% 62% 56% -2.8%
≤30d 43 -1.5% -10.9% 60% 56% -8.5%
≤90d 63 +9.3% -1.1% 63% 44% -8.3%
all 63 +9.3% -1.1% 63% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 44% -8.3%
10% -10.6% 30% -17.1%
15% -19.2% 17% -25.1%
20% -27.1% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$51 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage37d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 −$19 -20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $63 +$37 +59%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$55 +54%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $135 +$80 +59%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $87 +$48 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $203 +$52 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$26 +26%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $202 +$57 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $227 +$69 +31%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$75 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$61 -60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$30 +29%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $86 −$25 -29%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $86 −$4 -5%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $120 +$22 +18%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $129 +$89 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $185 −$182 -99%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $153 −$149 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $111 +$37 +34%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $69 −$68 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $170 +$30 +18%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $120 +$86 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $127 −$25 -20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $65 +$15 +23%
Saski Baskonia vs. Unicaja May 29 $33 −$16 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $191 +$27 +14%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Barcelona May 29 $28 +$13 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $208 −$8 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $35 +$13 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $118 +$18 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Strasbourg vs. Paris Basketball May 28 $69 +$11 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $155 +$5 +3%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $21 −$15 -70%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $301 −$34 -11%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $351 +$17 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $102 +$18 +18%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $350 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $201 +$16 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 49¢ $97 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $73 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $102 6h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $157 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $135 32h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $87 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $88 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $252 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $255 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $128 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 84¢ $259 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $202 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $227 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 58¢ $117 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $69 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $101 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $13 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 244 history records