Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb73…afc8 world 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$12
other 26% −$6
politics 12% +$6
sports 6% +$31
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 36 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 3% -9.2%
all 58 +8.4% -2.0% 52% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 16% -8.5%
10% -11.3% 12% -17.3%
15% -19.9% 9% -25.3%
20% -27.8% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage534d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $57 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $56 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $118 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $152 −$9 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $33 +$5 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $67 +$3 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $177 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $131 +$9 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $101 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $282 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $281 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $257 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $242 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $283 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 20 $50 −$8 -15%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Mar 04 $53 −$3 -6%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 04 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $152 $0 -0%
Rider vs. Saint Peter's Feb 17 $33 +$18 +56%
Morehead State vs. Western Illinois Feb 16 $16 +$16 +100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 13? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Jacksonville vs. Central Arkansas Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
West Georgia vs. Eastern Kentucky Feb 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Danny DeVito attend Super Bowl LIX? Feb 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $56 5m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $56 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $56 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $57 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $51 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $56 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $21 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $25 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $57 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $57 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records