Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdb78…7d84
crypto · 226 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$130 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$166 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses100 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)216 / 226
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day78.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 216 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$141
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? No 8¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+94%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$160
world 4% $0
politics 2% −$2
sports 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 7¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -25.8% -32.9% 43% 25% -29.3%
≤30d 216 -19.0% -26.8% 46% 30% -23.4%
≤90d 216 -19.0% -26.8% 46% 30% -23.4%
all 216 -19.0% -26.8% 46% 30% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 30% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 19% -30.7%
15% -40.2% 14% -37.4%
20% -46.0% 10% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.44 · official $19.44 (match) · 830 history records