Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb79…0558 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
other 33% +$1
politics 8% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.2%
all 41 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage305d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $47 +$2 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $45 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $88 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $19 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $24 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $41 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $45 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $45 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.55 · official $44.55 (match) · 128 history records