Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb7c…8eab sports 503 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,404 (-2%) realized −$2,397 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%232W / 263L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$730est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$684
7 days+$709
14 days−$1,873
30 days−$1,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,769
other 6% −$696
crypto 0% +$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +17.4% +6.3% 48% 48% +3.5%
≤30d 83 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 40% -21.1%
≤90d 372 -34.6% -40.8% 31% 31% -44.2%
all 495 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -11.1%
10% -20.4% 46% -19.6%
15% -28.1% 44% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 41% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$204 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$2,397
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses232 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$730
Open positions4
Markets (closed)495 / 503
History coverage289d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $405 +$285 +70%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $101 +$50 +50%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Jun 26 $50 +$84 +169%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$103 +34%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 +$141 +139%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$88 +29%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 +$131 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $253 +$138 +55%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$203 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND France to win the second half? Jun 23 $255 +$435 +171%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $201 +$52 +26%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $102 +$201 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $103 +$509 +497%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$178 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $411 −$87 -21%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$46 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $438 −$438 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $305 +$320 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $31 17h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $51 17h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $102 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 17h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 38h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both BUY 36¢ $50 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 41¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 3¢ $51 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 3d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.66 · official $492.66 (match) · 1080 history records