Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb7e…7e00 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-25%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$27
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$3
sports 36% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.8% -0.6% 50% 50% +19.1%
≤30d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 33% -33.0%
≤90d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 33% -33.0%
all 12 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 33% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 33% -33.0%
10% -47.0% 25% -39.4%
15% -52.2% 25% -45.3%
20% -56.8% 8% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $27 +$10 +37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $23 +$8 +36%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$23 +225%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 −$6 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $33 40h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $30 13d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 13d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $6.45 (match) · 28 history records