Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb7f…4e81 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (238 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%77W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day238.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$29
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (238 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 52% -15.3%
≤30d 145 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 52% -15.3%
≤90d 145 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 52% -15.3%
all 145 -5.1% -14.1% 53% 52% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover238.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 52% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 50% -23.4%
15% -29.8% 50% -30.8%
20% -36.7% 50% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses77 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day238.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -44%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records