Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb80…d22f politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
politics 41% −$12
sports 9% +$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +2.7% -7.1% 8% 3% -9.5%
all 135 +0.1% -9.4% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage119d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $377 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $220 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $198 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $233 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 7h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 7h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 42h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 44h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 46h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records