Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb82…213f crypto 586 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5,852 (-21%) realized −$5,852 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%487W / 99L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$885
7 days−$4,014
14 days−$3,768
30 days−$3,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,201
sports 0% +$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 43% -49.6%
≤30d 51 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 53% -39.1%
≤90d 586 -3.1% -12.4% 83% 17% -22.2%
all 586 -3.1% -12.4% 83% 17% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 17% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 9% -29.6%
15% -28.4% 9% -36.4%
20% -35.4% 8% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$111 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses487 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)586 / 586
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 586 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $82 +$76 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $320 +$259 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $206 +$147 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $600 +$417 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $296 −$286 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$150 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $224 +$175 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$83 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$91 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$250 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $536 −$536 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $707 −$707 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $132 +$71 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$315 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$41 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$46 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$25 +71%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $106 +$246 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$104 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $128 +$78 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$125 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $61 +$49 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $578 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $320 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $182 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $79 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $49 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $126 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $43 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $64 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $34 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $130 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $127 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records