Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb8a…4d20 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-12%) realized −$374 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%20W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$54
14 days−$234
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$224
politics 13% −$87
world 9% −$46
sports 4% −$13
finance 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$5
economics 1% −$13
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.6% -4.5% 31% 31% -14.3%
≤30d 44 -8.1% -16.9% 27% 27% -22.4%
≤90d 88 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 23% -26.6%
all 88 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 23% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 23% -26.6%
10% -43.6% 20% -33.6%
15% -49.0% 18% -40.0%
20% -54.0% 15% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses20 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)88 / 104
History coverage96d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $75 $83 +$8 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $59 $80 +$21 (+36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 76¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 21 $83 −$66 -79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$49 +799%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $80 +$75 +94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $82 −$39 -47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $137 −$41 -30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$41 -40%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 17 $146 −$55 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$37 -37%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +237%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $102 −$13 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$145 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $106 −$11 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 10 $7 −$6 -85%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Acad May 28 $7 +$12 +167%
Will Vance say "Russia" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $6 +$6 +92%
Will Vance say "Ass" during Air Force Academy Address? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 09 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $61 −$3 -5%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 1h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL No 4¢ $17 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 40h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 42h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 43h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.43 · official $409.44 (match) · 289 history records