Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb8a…0ca8 crypto 963 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+0%) realized +$133 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%786W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$110
14 days+$98
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$98
sports 20% +$339
crypto 20% −$72
tech 15% +$8
weather 10% +$7
politics 2% −$175
world 1% −$3
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.4% -12.6% 89% 11% -4.2%
≤30d 158 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 11% -7.5%
≤90d 701 -10.1% -18.7% 80% 18% -10.8%
all 952 -3.7% -12.9% 83% 25% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 25% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 12% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses786 / 166
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)952 / 963
History coverage161d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 952 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Down 99¢ 100¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 63¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 88¢ 26¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 30¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$98 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$3 +3%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $94 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$1 +1%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +3%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $103 +$2 +2%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $103 +$2 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$50 -90%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 3¢ $3 11m
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $165 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9h
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 99¢ $105 24h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $100 24h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $101 2d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $105 2d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $105 2d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $203 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 4d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 97¢ $104 5d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 98¢ $94 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $105 6d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $105 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 97¢ $100 6d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $10 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Olise 63¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.25 · official $206.26 (match) · 2219 history records