Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb8c…60aa other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+2%) realized +$291 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%68W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$263
14 days+$177
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$53
crypto 22% +$18
sports 15% −$170
economics 4% +$47
politics 3% +$5
world 3% +$130
culture 1% +$23
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 40% -25.4%
≤30d 30 +13.2% +2.4% 53% 53% -4.4%
≤90d 68 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 41% -12.5%
all 125 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 47% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 47% -8.7%
10% -21.2% 42% -17.5%
15% -28.8% 28% -25.4%
20% -35.8% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$48 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses68 / 57
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage261d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$1 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$3 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$72 +101%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$111 -55%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $273 +$156 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 05 $104 −$14 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $206 −$131 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $206 +$4 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 04 $200 +$5 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $101 +$6 +6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen May 04 $101 +$30 +30%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $234 −$67 -29%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $51 −$21 -41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $102 −$85 -83%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 03 $50 −$7 -13%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou May 03 $30 −$30 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $101 −$91 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 02 $262 +$201 +77%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 02 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag May 02 $101 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $149 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $147 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $97 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $143 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $41 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $71 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $91 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $89 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $41 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $51 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.46 · official $97.46 (match) · 257 history records